GotFrag.com:--Eight American teams will be attending the regional qualification tournament this year, and while the dates and match ups have not yet been announced, there is enough readily available data to allow us to predict just who might fare better than the rest. Four of the eight teams attending US regionals this year are sponsorless, so the stakes are higher than ever. A win, or even a good showing at regionals, can almost guarantee sponsorship for attendance at future events. Needless to say, this year?s regionals are shaping up to be the most exciting to date.
If you want to catch up on the qualifiers, you can do so here with our US regional qualifying team preview.
[All data is taken from the qualification round of the 2010 US arena tournament. Data from the practice phase is no longer available.]
TSG
The following are the combined stats of both of TSG's teams in the tournament.
Overall win percentage of 76%
The following is their record against the other qualifying teams.
1-5 (20%) versus Rise of the Nobodies
3-7 (42.85%) versus seastoner
5-1 (83.3%) versus team CHRIS THORMAN
4-3 (57.14%) versus Complexity.Black
0-4 (0%) versus Complexity.Red
40.65% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
Complexity.Black
Overall win percentage of 74%
11-20 (35.48%) versus ArenaPwnage
3-12 (20%) versus Complexity.Red
3-4 (42.86%) versus TSG
5-0 (100%) versus Rise of the Nobodies
1-1 (50%) versus Nerdstompers
49.66% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
seastoner
Overall win percentage of 74%
7-3 (57.15%) versus TSG
0-3 (0%) versus ArenaPwnage
1-1 (50%) versus Complexity.Red
37.51% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualifying rounds of the arena tournament.
ArenaPwnage
The following are the combined stats of both of ArenaPwnage's teams in the tournament.
Overall win percentage of 80.5%
0-2 (0%) versus team CHRIS THORMAN
20-11 (64.52%) versus Complexity.Black
3-0 (100%) versus seastoner
1-2 (33.33%) versus Complexity.Red
49.46% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
Rise of the Nobodies
Overall win percentage of 77%
5-1 (80%) versus TSG
0-5 (0%) versus Complexity.Black
1-1 (50%) versus team CHRIS THORMAN
1-1 (50%) versus Complexity.Red
45% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
Complexity.Red
Overall win percentage of 79%
12-3 (80%) versus Complexity.Black
3-2 (60%) versus team CHRIS THORMAN
4-0 (100%) versus TSG
1-1 (50%) versus Rise of the Nobodies
2-1 (66.66%) versus ArenaPwnage
71.33% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
Nerdstompers
Overall win percentage of 77%
4-4 (50%) versus team CHRIS THORMAN
1-1 (50%) versus Complexity.Black
50% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
team CHRIS THORMAN
Overall win percentage of 70%
4-4 (50%) versus Nerdstompers
1-5 (20%) versus TSG
2-3 (30%) versus Complexity.Red
1-1 (50%) versus Rise of the Nobodies
2-0 (100%) versus ArenaPwnage
50% win percentage against other qualifying teams played against during the qualification rounds of the arena tournament.
Rise of the Nobodies, as well as a few of the other teams traveling to regionals, have the advantage of having absolutely no expectations going in to the tournament. Rise of the Nobodies set themselves apart from the other new teams by the fact that Hawstuffs, the Shaman on the team, has only been playing his class for a month.
The fact that this team was able to qualify at all playing with someone who has barely had any experience playing his class is a feat in and of itself. With a record of 5-1 against TSG, last year's Global Champions, it is very likely that we may see some big upsets at the hands of Rise of the Nobodies.
Unlike Rise of the Nobodies, Nerdstompers have the disadvantage of having one of the largest fan bases among the teams who qualified for regionals. With a huge amount of expectations on their shoulders, very little experience against the other qualifying teams during the qualification rounds, and an outdated comp, I predict Nerdstompers may disappoint quite a few of their fans come regionals.
The biggest upset at Columbus was of Complexity.Black at the hands of ArenaPwnage. Last year's MLG champs looked a bit rusty and unprepared for the rising stars, going 0-3 against ArenaPwnage in their series.
It was after this loss that Col.Black seemed to lose most of their steam and drive to play at their fullest for the remainder of the tournament. Having the most games against each other during the qualification rounds (31), these two teams are certainly no strangers to each other. Both teams have their reasons for wanting to play each other again, with Complexity.Black wanting to silence their critics and ArenaPwnage wanting to prove that the 3-0 wasn't just a fluke. Here's hoping that Blizzard matches these two teams up.
As the 8th seeded team with the lowest win/loss percentage of qualifying teams, having no experience in a LAN environment, and running a relatively weak composition, not many people expect team CHRIS THORMAN to do anything but lose during regionals.
But if Uck's success on live realms has taught us anything, it's that he doesn't really care what everyone else thinks. While I don't think team CHRIS THORMAN will be moving on to the Global Championships, I wouldn't be surprised to see some big victories at the hands of this team.
8. seastoner: With very little experience playing against their fellow qualifiers, and even less experience playing in a LAN environment, I predict seastoner will have a very poor showing at regionals.
7. team CHRIS THORMAN: As much as I like Uck and hope he is able to finally get sponsored, I don't feel the comp he's bringing to this tournament is strong enough to do very well at all. That, as well as the fact that none of the members of team CHRIS THORMAN have any LAN experience what-so-ever, leads me to put this team in 7th Place.
6. Nerdstompers: This may be the most controversial of my projections, but I just don't believe Nerdstompers and their WLD comp are capable of going toe-to-toe with top teams and comps in Season 8. With only 10 games against two of the other qualifying teams, Nerdstompers lack the experience needed to devise strategies tailored to their competitors, and this is very problematic considering WLD is one of the most strategy-reliant comps in the arena today.
5. Rise of the Nobodies: Of the teams new to LAN, I feel Rise of the Nobodies will do the best. I suspect they will surprise quite a few people with some upset victories, but won't win enough games to get past 5th Place.
4. TSG: I feel as though the Top 4 will be a very close race, and TSG will end up coming out coughing on the Top 3's dust. TSG have the disadvantage of playing on a completely different battlegroup than most of the other Top 8 teams.
I talked to Valrath as he watched the other teams race for qualification, and he told me that the team he hopes most to avoid during regionals is Complexity.Red. As far as I know, TSG has never played ArenaPwnage. Whether they have experience playing against the comp is unknown, but I don't think TSG are prepared to face ArenaPwnage. Lastly, Beastcleave seemed to be the comp TSG struggled most with playing against during qualifications rounds. With a 4-3 record against Complexity.Black and an even worse record against Hawk Gaming (the other Beast Cleave to hit front page) I believe Complexity.Black to be the biggest obstacle standing in the way of another Global Championship win for TSG.
3. Complexity.Black: When Beast Cleave first hit the scene, they had the advantage of doing a next to unhealable amount of burst damage in a very short amount of time. But with the latest gear and content, there are compositions that can trump Beast Cleave in burst while having a lot more defensive utility.
Take ArenaPwnage, for example: here we have a comp that can take a target down in a matter of seconds if they catch them in a good spot, while also having the ability to go into defensive mode and prolong games until they get that golden opportunity. Beast Cleave just don't have that kind of utility anymore. Once they have no cooldowns they're completely dead in the water, and that's why I don't foresee Complexity.Black moving on to the Global Championships.
2. ArenaPwnage: No one, not one person expected ArenaPwnage to do as well as they did in Columbus. Whether it be composition, team synergy, or the other teams underestimating them, something just clicked, and I feel as though ArenaPwnage was one of the best teams at Columbus. With all members of the team now having a good amount of LAN experience under their belts, I think that ArenaPwnage may surprise us once again with a big finish at regionals.
1. Complexity.Red: Sodah, Snutz, and Venruki are among some of the most talented players currently playing arena. The amount of synergy between Complexity.Red's 3 members is unmatched, and I believe every team at regionals will have a hard time beating their MLD composition. With the best win percentage against other qualifying teams (71% of the 5 teams that they played during qualification rounds) I think the only obstacle that may stand in the way of a 1st Place finish for Complexity.Red is ArenaPwnage. Having missed each other at MLG Columbus, and with no games against each other during the qualification round of the Arena Tournament, I am very excited to see how both teams fare against each other.
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